WHEN THE GROUND SHIFTS: LESSONS FROM JAPAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S LEGAL LANDSCAPE

On 28 July 2026, an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.1 struck Kumamoto Prefecture in southern Japan. The tremor, which the Japan Meteorological Agency has officially named the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake, forced roughly 300 000 residents to evacuate to shelters. A shopping mall partially collapsed, reportedly followed by an explosion believed to be caused by a gas leak, and rescue teams worked through the night searching for survivors. By the following morning, Japanese authorities confirmed 13 deaths, with many more injured or unaccounted for. A tsunami advisory was issued for the Ariake and Yatsushiro Seas before being lifted, and Japan's Self-Defence Forces deployed approximately 3 600 personnel to affected areas. Rail services across Kyushu, including the Shinkansen, were suspended, and aftershocks continued to rattle the region in the days that followed.

Japan's disaster response is, by global standards, remarkably efficient. Decades of investment in seismic-resistant building codes, early-warning systems, and coordinated emergency infrastructure mean that a quake of this magnitude, which in many other parts of the world might have claimed thousands of lives, resulted in a comparatively contained loss. Yet even with that preparedness, the human and economic toll is real with homes destroyed, businesses interrupted, infrastructure damaged, and communities left to rebuild.

South Africa's Relative Fortune, and Its Limits

South Africa does not sit on an active plate boundary in the way Japan does. We are not subject to the same frequency or intensity of seismic activity, nor do we face the tsunami risk that accompanies subduction-zone earthquakes along the Pacific Rim. In that sense, our geographical position spares us from a category of catastrophic, sudden-onset disaster that many other nations must live with as a constant possibility.

But geographical fortune is not the same as immunity. South Africa remains exposed to a range of what insurers and lawyers alike often refer to as "acts of God" which are events beyond human control that nonetheless carry devastating consequences. Our own history includes damaging seismic events, notably the 1969 Tulbagh earthquake, as well as mining-induced tremors in Gauteng's gold-mining belt. Beyond seismic risk, South Africans face flooding (the April 2022 KwaZulu-Natal floods remain a stark reminder), drought, wildfire, hailstorms, and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change. Load-shedding-related infrastructure damage, sinkholes in dolomitic areas, and severe storm damage along the coastline add further layers of risk that are often underestimated until they occur.

The common thread is this: these events are frequently unforeseen, poorly insured against, and inadequately planned for - both at a household level and within the business community. Unlike Japan, where seismic risk is a known and constantly rehearsed reality, many South African individuals and businesses have not built the same culture of preparedness, simply because the specific threat they eventually face was not the one they expected.

The Aftermath: Where the Real Difficulty Begins

Disaster response captures headlines, but the harder, longer struggle begins once the immediate crisis has passed. This is where individuals and businesses in South Africa frequently encounter difficulty, and where sound legal guidance becomes essential.

For individuals, the process of lodging and pursuing an insurance claim after a disaster is rarely straightforward. Policy exclusions, disputes over the cause of damage, undervaluation of losses, delays in assessment, and outright repudiation of claims are common experiences. Many policyholders discover, often too late, that the cover they believed they had does not extend to the specific peril that affected them, or that strict notification and documentation requirements were not met in the chaos of the event itself.

For businesses, the stakes are compounded. Beyond the physical damage to premises, stock, and equipment, there is business interruption to contend with - lost revenue, contractual obligations that cannot be met, employees who must still be paid, and suppliers or clients who may look to enforce agreements despite the disruption. Businesses may need to restructure debt, renegotiate leases, review force majeure clauses in existing contracts, or in more serious cases, consider business rescue proceedings under the Companies Act 71 of 2008 to preserve viability while they recover.

We encourage every individual and business to maintain adequate, carefully reviewed insurance cover as a first line of defence. However, having a policy in place does not guarantee a smooth claims process, and even well-insured parties can find themselves facing insurers reluctant to pay out in full, or at all.

How We Can Help

At Gittins Attorneys, we understand that the aftermath of an "act of God" event is rarely just a matter of physical rebuilding but also a legal and financial rebuilding process. We are prepared to stand alongside our clients through that process, offering:

• Insurance claims advice for individuals and businesses facing disputed, delayed, or repudiated claims, including guidance on policy interpretation and, where necessary, dispute resolution or litigation against insurers.

• Business restructuring guidance for companies whose operations have been disrupted, including advice on contractual relief, lease renegotiation, and, where appropriate, business rescue proceedings.

• Contractual risk review, helping clients understand and strengthen force majeure and related clauses before disaster strikes, so that the next unforeseen event is met with greater legal certainty.

Japan's experience is a sobering reminder that even the best-prepared nations cannot fully escape the impact of sudden catastrophe. When the unexpected happens, whether it is a flood, a fire, a storm, or any other event beyond anyone's control, having the right legal partner can make the difference between a difficult recovery and a derailed one.